The soybean boom: A two-decade transformation. Illustration by: AI.
By Rangkaya Bada
Published April 27, 2025
In 2024, global oilseed production is reaching historic highs, powered overwhelmingly by soybeans. World production of the ten major oilseeds is projected to hit 635.1 million tons (Mn T) in the 2023/24 season—an increase of 17.1 Mn T from the previous year, according to Oil World Annual 2024.
At the center of this story is the soybean. Once merely one of several important oilseeds, soybeans have risen to dominate the global market, accounting for 61.2% of total oilseed output—up sharply from 55.9% two decades ago.
The numbers are staggering: soybean production has more than doubled since 2003/04, surging from 185.4 Mn T to 388.8 Mn T today. This expansion has been driven by higher yields, greater planting areas, and unrelenting demand for vegetable oil and high-protein feed.
Crisis Averted in Brazil—For Now
Brazil’s agricultural sector faced one of its most challenging seasons in recent memory. Severe drought conditions devastated many regions through early 2024, only to be followed by destructive floods during harvest time in Rio Grande do Sul.
Despite these adversities, Brazil maintained strong output, highlighting the sector’s resilience but also revealing its fragility. Brazilian soybean stocks are expected to drop to 37.5 Mn T by the end of the 2023/24 season, a decline from 44.8 Mn T a year earlier.
Meanwhile, global soybean stocks have climbed to 99.8 Mn T, thanks to bumper crops in Argentina and the United States. But as the world grows more reliant on a few key producers, the risks of disruption multiply.
Other Oilseeds Left Behind in the Dust
While soybeans sprint ahead, other oilseeds are struggling to keep pace.
Rapeseed and canola production declined this season, falling by 1.6 Mn T to 78.3 Mn T. Though impressive compared to their levels twenty years ago, the trend is troubling. Sunflowerseed production rebounded modestly—up by 2.1 Mn T to 58.0 Mn T—largely due to robust harvests in Russia and Ukraine.
But these gains are exceptions. Cottonseed, once a major player, has seen its share of total oilseed production decline from 10.9% to just 6.4% since 2003/04. Groundnuts, copra, and linseed remain marginal contributors, with little sign of a resurgence.
The market imbalance is clear: soybeans are carrying the load, while the diversity of the global oilseed complex continues to erode.
Crushing It: A Surge in Processing
The rising tide of soybean production has naturally fed into a boom in oilseed crushing.
March–August 2024 crushings are forecast to jump by 6.6 Mn T, pushing soybean crushing volumes to 172.1 Mn T. Meanwhile, crushings of rapeseed and sunflowerseed are projected to stagnate, unable to match the dynamism of soybeans.
Processing margins remained favorable through early 2024, but the trend is unmistakable. The world’s crushing industry, like its production, is becoming ever more dependent on the soybean juggernaut.
Should disruptions occur, the consequences for global vegetable oil and meal markets could be swift and severe.
Betting the Farm on Soybeans
The global agricultural economy’s deepening reliance on soybeans is, in a word, risky.
A severe drought in the U.S. Midwest, a pest outbreak sweeping Brazilian farms, or a major trade disruption involving China could send shockwaves through global markets. The world's growing dependence on a single crop makes the system highly efficient—but dangerously brittle.
Environmental concerns compound these risks. Soybean expansion is a major driver of deforestation in the Amazon and Cerrado regions of Brazil, contributing to biodiversity loss and climate change. This raises uncomfortable questions about the true sustainability of the current boom.
As production grows, so too do the stakes.
The Geopolitical Chessboard
Beyond weather and environmental risks, geopolitical forces are reshaping the oilseed landscape.
Russia and Ukraine have shown surprising resilience in sunflowerseed production despite ongoing conflict. At the same time, China's strategic diversification of its soybean import sources—from relying primarily on the United States to increasingly turning to Brazil, Argentina, and even Russia —illustrates how trade politics now deeply intersect with agricultural markets.
The shifting dynamics underscore a broader truth: the oilseed market is no longer just about supply and demand. It is about strategic leverage, national security, and economic power.
The Call for Diversification Grows Louder
The world’s agricultural policymakers, industry leaders, and environmentalists now face a difficult but urgent question: Is it time to diversify away from soybeans?
Reviving the production of other oilseeds—like groundnuts, linseed, and copra—could help rebalance the market. Advances in plant breeding and regenerative agriculture offer hope for greater resilience and sustainability.
But systemic change is slow, and incentives still overwhelmingly favor soybeans. Without deliberate intervention, the current trend is likely to continue—and with it, the systemic risks.
The Bottom Line: A Double-Edged Success
The data from Oil World Annual 2024 tells a compelling story: the world is producing more oilseeds than ever before, and soybeans are the undisputed champion of this growth.
But abundance is not security. A global food system tethered so tightly to a single crop is inherently vulnerable —economically, environmentally, and politically.
The world may celebrate record harvests today. But it must also prepare for the storms that could come tomorrow.
Source: Oil World Annual 2024, published May 31, 2024
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